Weekly Briefing · June 29, 2026

Macroeconomic understanding
for microeconomic deployment

Welcome to this Calendar Week 27 HDH macroeconomic podcast.

📅 Monday, June 29, 2026 ⏱ 7 min briefing 🌍 Global Macro

01 / Crypto

Bitcoin tests $58k — short-squeeze primed

BTC Spot

$59,400

−0.9% / 24h

Weekly low

$58,000

multi-year low, recovered

Market Cap

$1.19 T

risk asset stable

7-day trend

−6.8%

squeeze setup (CoinDesk)

"Multi-year low at $58k — but a short-squeeze setup is emerging" – CoinDesk

02 / Commodities

Oil eases — Hormuz reopens

Gold (XAU/USD)

$4,040

−3% / week (4th in a row)

Brent Crude

$72

low since Feb 27 · easing

WTI (month)

~$79

softening

🕊️

US-Iran peace progress → shipping through Hormuz resumes

⚓

Gulf exports back to ~75% of pre-war levels

🛢️

OPEC expands output: Iraq, Saudi Arabia (Ras Tanura), UAE, Kuwait, Qatar

03 / Equities

US indices hold their highs

S&P 500

7,354

−0.05% · near record

Nasdaq

25,298

−0.24% · stable

Dow Jones

51,876

−0.09%

Nikkei 225

68,869

−0.71% · comfortable

DAX 40

24,671

−1.29% · easing off

Recession odd

12%

economy robust (Polymarket)

📈 A calm, stable week just below the record highs

04 / Currencies

Euro solid, franc firmly anchored

EUR/USD

~1.17

ECB tightening supports euro

USD/JPY

~158

rate gap supports USD

GBP/USD · USD/CHF

~1.34

SNB at 0% · CHF firm

The euro is well supported — the ECB responds to inflation pressure while US demand stays robust

05 / Monetary Policy & Macro

Central banks with a steady hand

Fed

3.50 – 3.75

Hold (4th) · 8–4 vote

ECB

2.25%

+25 bps eff. June 17

SNB

0.00%

Hold · intervention-ready

BoJ

accomm.

further steps signaled

📊

Fed dot plot: majority for at least 1 hike by year-end · PCE 3.6%

🗳️

8–4 vote: four dissenters – first time since Oct. 1992

🇨🇭

SNB inflation 2026: 0.6% · franc firmly anchored

06 / Polymarket Pulse

Betting markets: only 12% recession risk

US recession 2026

12%

$1.63M traded

Fed cuts 2026: 0

~81%

frontrunner

Fed hike 2026

53%

futures ~66% for 25 bp

June FOMC No Change

99%

consensus confirmed

⭐ The debate shifts from cuts to a possible hike — a bet on strength

Outlook CW 28

In focus:
Does the Gulf easing hold?

🕊️

Hormuz normalization & ample oil supply

📈

Fed speeches: how concrete does the hike path get?

🪙

Gold after its 4th down week — stabilization or entry?

Stay informed.
HDH Macro Intelligence – next week.

Macroeconomic understandingfor microeconomic deployment