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Calendar Week 30 / 2026
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Weekly Briefing · July 20, 2026

Macroeconomic understanding
for microeconomic deployment

Welcome to this Calendar Week 30 HDH macroeconomic podcast.

📅 Monday, July 20, 2026 ⏱ 7 min briefing 🌍 Global Macro
01 / Crypto

Capital returns — ETF inflows resume

BTC Spot
$64,246
+0.37% latest
ETF inflows
+$75.7M
2nd straight week
Outflow streak
ended
after 8 weeks / −$8.2B
Futures OI
$48.90B
+3.52% · funding neutral

"A second consecutive week of inflows — crypto markets may be finding a floor" – Bloomberg, July 20, 2026

02 / Commodities

Oil sets the pace — gold defends 4,000

Brent Crude
$90.40
Hormuz risk premium
WTI
$84.39
markedly firmer
Gold (XAU/USD)
$4,011
−2.6% / week · holds $4,000
⚓
US–Iran tensions disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
🔄
Role reversal: focus shifts from gold safe-haven demand to inflation risk
🏦
Central bank buying (China above all) continues unchanged — a stable foundation
03 / Equities

Sector rotation, not a broad retreat

S&P 500
7,457.69
about −1.5% / week
Nasdaq
25,520.24
−2.9% / week
Dow Jones
52,146.42
about −1% / week
SMI Switzerland
14,344
+0.54% · only index up
DAX 40
24,830.98
−0.34% (Fri)
Nikkei 225
64,141.12
−4.03% (Fri) · rebound into close

🔄 Semis & AI consolidate, energy names benefit — Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,229 (−1.1%)

04 / Currencies

Two forces: softer inflation vs. oil premium

EUR/USD
1.1435
constructive on the week
USD/JPY
162.40
MoF signals readiness
USD/CHF
0.83
Q3 forecast (not a spot rate)

Calmer US inflation dampened the dollar through the week — on Friday the picture turned on the oil and geopolitical premium

05 / Policy & Macro

Core inflation at 0.0% — the Fed gets room

Fed
3.50 – 3.75
meeting July 29
ECB
−25 bp
expected · pace in focus
SNB
0.00%
hold
BoJ
0.50 – 0.75
path into end-2026
📊
US core CPI June: 0.0% m/m (0.2% expected) · 2.6% y/y — both below forecast
🛢️
The counterpoint: energy costs feed into transport and production with a lag
📅
Next date: Fed July 29 · the tone on the oil effect is what matters
06 / Polymarket Pulse

Prediction markets: 92.5% for a Fed hold

FOMC Jul 29 No Change
92.5%
+21.0 pp · $60.5M volume
FOMC Jul 29 +25 bp
~5%
residual probability
Fed cuts 2026: 0
81.25%
$42.4M volume
Fed hike 2026? "Yes"
52.5%
a genuine standoff

⭐ The market mainly expects standstill with a slight upward tilt — for corporate planning, that means predictability

Outlook CW 31

In focus:
Fed meeting, July 29

📅
The hold looks settled — how does the tone on the oil price effect read?
⚓
If Hormuz normalizes, the oil risk premium falls back quickly
🪙
Bitcoin ETFs: does the inflow streak hold a third week?

Stay informed.
HDH Macro Intelligence – next week.

⌂