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Calendar Week 40 / 2026
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Weekly Briefing · September 28, 2026

Macroeconomic understanding
for microeconomic deployment

Welcome to this Calendar Week forty HDH macroeconomic podcast.

📅 Monday, September 28, 2026 ⏱ ~10 min briefing 🌍 Global Macro
01 / Deep Block · Bonds & Dollar

Bond sell-off drives rates to a twenty-year high

10Y US Yield
5.22%
highest since 2007
30Y US Yield
5.5%
highest since 2004
EUR/USD
1.1370
2-month low · 3rd week down
Gold (XAU/USD)
$4,271
−>2% / week

US 30Y mortgage rate above 7% for the first time since 2023 · US PMI 58.4

01 / Causal Chain

Why gold fell despite the crisis

Step 1
Robust economy
US PMI 58.4
→
Step 2 + 3
Market prices more hikes
energy inflation · Oct ~65%, Dec ~72%
→
Step 4
Long end rises
10Y 5.22% · 30Y 5.5%
→
Step 5
Real rates up → gold down
gold −>2% · dollar up

It wasn't the crisis that drove this week, it was the real rate. Gold pays no interest — when the real rate rises, the foregone interest income becomes a price tag on the gold bar (opportunity cost).

01 / Counter-check & Consequence

"Crisis = gold up" only holds when fear drives it

?
The reflex only works when investors flee into safety — when the crisis drives fear.
≠
This week the situation drove the interest rate, not the fear: robust data, sticky inflation, a tight central bank.
$
Consequence: your financing price is the long yield — at a twenty-year high — not the policy rate.
!
Gold offers no shelter against a real-rate surge — don't bet on long rates falling fast while inflation stays sticky.
02 / Deep Block · Equities

Equities rise — best week since August

S&P 500
7,743
+1.2% week
Nasdaq
27,069
+2.1% week · best since Aug.
Dow Jones
51,829
+0.3% · ends 3-week slide
Nikkei 225
66,270
+2.07% week
DAX 40
~25,500
mixed week
SMI
13,953
slightly firmer (Fri)

📈 US, Europe and Japan firmer at once — in the week of the bond sell-off

02 / Causal Chain

Why equities rose despite rates

Step 1
High inflation
costs rise
→
Step 2
Pricing power
passed on to customers
→
Step 3
Nominal profits rise
partial inflation hedge
→
Step 4
Oil eases (Hormuz)
Brent ~$105 · dampens rate fear
→
Result
Prices rise
Nasdaq +2.1%

Rising rates weigh on equities through discounting (future profits worth less today). Where nominal profits grow with inflation, the earnings gain outweighs the headwind — but only with pricing power.

02 / Counter-check & Consequence

Only with pricing power

≠
The advantage only works with genuine pricing power — rate-sensitive names lag behind.
%
Proof: the Dow +0.3% (more value / rate-sensitive) vs. Nasdaq +2.1% (tech / pricing power) — same rate headwind, two outcomes.
∑
Consequence 1: think in real terms — a nominal revenue gain is not real growth if inflation eats it up.
✓
Consequence 2: honestly test your own pricing power — can you pass on costs without losing customers?
03 / Commodities

Gold gives way, oil de-escalates

Gold (XAU/USD)
$4,271
−>2% / week · real-rate driven
Brent Crude
$105.70
−0.88% · off ~$108 high
Hormuz premium
falling
US–Iran talks in New York

Less risk on oil means less imported inflation — Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

04 / Currencies

Strong dollar — SNB holds at zero

EUR/USD
1.1370
2-month low · 3rd week down
USD/CHF
0.83
+0.9% / week (dollar firmer)
USD/JPY
157
fairly stable
SNB (Sep 24)
0.00%
hold · ready for FX intervention

SNB: inflation risen on energy, only a little more pressure medium-term — a calm anchor in a strong-dollar environment.

05 / Crypto

Bitcoin steady — ETF inflows a yearly record

Bitcoin Spot
$84,000
steady despite rate headwind
US BTC ETF inflow
$2.4B
strongest week of 2026
US ETH ETF inflow
$690M
reversal after outflow
On-chain resistance
$95–97k
next hurdle

💧 US bitcoin ETFs' year-to-date balance turned positive for the first time — led by the largest provider

06 / Polymarket Pulse

Betting markets: 97% no cut in 2026

Oct hike (Oct 28)
~65%
25 bp
December hike
~72%
a further 25 bp
No cut in 2026
~97%
consensus
≥1 hike in 2026
91.5%
implied

⭐ A clear market view: the next step is up, not down

Outlook CW 41

Will long rates confirm
their 20-year high?

📊
Every new US inflation and activity figure decides: a softer picture → room for gold; a strong one → dollar & long rates confirmed.
🛢️
Oil front: progress at the Strait of Hormuz helps the inflation side — and, by that detour, bonds too.
🧭
Compass: rising rates and firm equities are no contradiction — what's decisive is pricing power.

Stay informed.
HDH Macro Intelligence – next week.