Welcome to this Calendar Week forty-two HDH macroeconomic podcast.
Weakest sector of the week: technology −1.0% · led by defensives (utilities, staples, energy)
The reflex "higher yields → lower prices" holds only when the rise hits the earnings story. Discounting means bringing future profits back to today's value — the higher the rate, the less they are worth now. Here the rise is a risk premium, not a new wave of policy hikes.
Monday Oct 12: back above $84,000 — the situation calmed into the new week.
A rise in yields does not always weaken Bitcoin — a growth-driven rise lifts it with stocks. This one was inflation- and fiscal-driven and met with caution. The difference from stocks: profits can outrun the rate, a yield-less asset cannot — and leverage amplifies it.
A proposed Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire eased supply worry · fading Middle East escalation took pressure off both markets.
🧭 Less data under a tight course — part of why the long end was so sensitive.
The driver remains the dollar's yield advantage · next euro level down ~1.11.
⭐ The betting picture matches the tight signal from the meeting minutes.
Stay informed.
HDH Macro Intelligence – next week.