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Special Edition · October 21, 2026

The engine stalls
Germany & the EU

Germany, the EU's engine, is stalling — a location analysis in the mirror of the IMD competitiveness ranking, from an ordoliberal perspective. Occasion: the symposium "For Lars P. Feld at 60" (IWP, University of Lucerne).

📅 Wednesday, October 21, 2026 ⏱ ~9 min special 🏭 Location & Competition
01 / IMD Ranking · The Finding

Germany in mid-table

No. 1 (2026)
Singapore
score 100
Switzerland
3rd
down from 1st
Germany 2026
~20–23
score 73.6
Germany 2025
19th
slipped back in 2026

Four pillars: economic performance · government efficiency · business efficiency · infrastructure — 70 economies.

01 / Causal Chain

Why the rank falls

Step 1
Costs rise
energy · taxes · bureaucracy · labour (BDI)
→
Step 2
Competitiveness falls
price per unit rises vs. abroad
→
Step 3
Production shifts
VW: 35,000 jobs · up to 3 plants
→
Step 4+5
Rank falls
industry −15% vs. 2017 · 19th → ~20–23

A location ranking does not measure effort, but relative conditions — how expensive and friction-free a unit is made here versus abroad. Read through the ordoliberal lens (Freiburg School, Eucken/Feld): not subsidies decide, but the regulatory framework — energy, taxes, bureaucracy, competition.

01 / Counter-test & Consequence

What a ranking does not measure

?
It measures the relative: Germany can build top products and still fall back if others improve their conditions faster.
≠
Strengths barely captured: deep skilled labour, a strong Mittelstand, legal certainty — hard to see in an annual figure.
!
The reflex "ranking down, so everything is bad" falls short.
€
Consequence: separate product from location — factor in the relative cost line, not absolute quality alone. The location sets the margin.
02 / The Engine Effect

Almost a quarter of the EU

EU GDP share
23.8%
largest economy
2015
25.1%
slipped slightly
Top 4 (DE·FR·IT·ES)
61%
of EU GDP
Role
Engine
buyer + supplier network

Germany is the industrial core and trading hub — pulling force and risk at once.

02 / Causal Chain

Why the whole EU slows

Step 1
German core weakens
the largest block stalls
→
Step 2
Fewer intermediate goods
parts, chemicals, machines from neighbours
→
Step 3
Less final demand
partners sell less
→
Step 4
EU growth slows
via supply chains + demand

An engine in a network means: Germany's demand and supply chains are inputs for its neighbours. If the largest block drops out, pulling force is missing — not because the others are weak, but because a quarter of the machine stalls. Image: the big locomotive loses power; the carriages don't become bad.

02 / Counter-test & Consequence

Not helplessly chained

✓
Several countries grow under their own power — Spain is the most visible example. The Union is not helplessly chained to Germany.
≠
But: a quarter of the machine cannot simply be replaced — the others can't fully fill the missing pull of the largest block.
💡
Image: the big locomotive loses pulling power — the carriages don't become bad, there's just not enough force for the whole set.
€
Consequence: treat Germany as the pace-setter — a demand drop at the largest buyer travels through the supply chain, even to firms outside Germany.
03 / Cost Side

Energy: about twice as expensive

EU industrial power
~2×
vs. US / China
Energy-intensive (DE)
~10 ct
/kWh · +½ vs. 5 yrs ago
Industrial power price
target ~5 ct
/kWh · 2026–2028, temporary
BDI view
clearly higher
than US/China (not the world's top)

Experts skeptical that a temporary subsidy fixes the structure for good.

04 / Industrial Core

BDI: stagnation, not recovery

GDP forecast 2026
+0.5%
halved from 1.0%
Industrial output
−15%
vs. 2017 peak (est.)
BDI outlook
stagnation
possible 5th year of decline
Causes
4 costs
labour·tax·bureaucracy·energy

🧭 A structural finding — and precisely therefore structurally solvable.

05 / The €500bn Bet

Debt brake loosened

Bundestag (03/2025)
513 : 207
historic reform
Special fund
€500 bn
infrastructure + climate
of which climate
~€100 bn
12-year window
Implementation
slower
than planned

⭐ Money alone builds no bridge if the permit takes years.

06 / The Ordoliberal Answer

The framework beats the money

✓
Freiburg School (Eucken, Feld): not the subsidy, but the regulatory framework decides competitiveness.
→
€500bn into faster permits, cheaper energy, less bureaucracy = a permanently better location.
≠
€500bn into industry subsidies without new rules = fizzles out.
🏛
Occasion for this episode: the symposium "For Lars P. Feld at 60" (IWP, University of Lucerne, 9 Oct 2026).
The Lesson

Not the cycle —
the rules of the game

🔧
The engine stalls not for lack of good products, but because the relative location conditions got expensive and sluggish — the IMD ranking makes it visible.
♻️
The good news: what the regulatory framework worsened, it can also improve again.
🧭
Watch not just the business cycle, but energy, taxes, bureaucracy, competition.

Stay informed.
HDH Macro Intelligence – next week.

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